Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
