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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still